Five Years From Now
Imagine what will happen in five years, especially with regards to technology and social media. Where have things been? Where will they go? What will be different between now and then? In thinking about the future, we can better understand our position in the present. I’m hoping that through this we can talk about trends and thoughts and ideas and plans. It’s fun, but it’s also a way to plan and consider our own paths. (This is fairly technology-focused. Feel free to spin your answer in the comments section however you want it.)
Here are some starting points for considering where we WERE, and then push them forward into where we’re going.
The Last Six Years
- iPod and iTunes come out in 2001.
- The first BlackBerry phone was released in 2001.
- Firefox isn’t a browser until 2003.
- RSS with enclosures (podcasting’s guts) happens around Sept 2003.
- Gmail doesn’t exist until 2004.
- Wordpress got popular in 2004 (after Movable Type changed licensing).
- IBM sells its ThinkPad division to Lenovo in 2005.
- Facebook launches in 2004 and opens to the masses in 2006.
So where will things go? What I *really* want are your answers, but here are some thoughts from my perspective, to get your thoughts going.
Social Media Becomes “Communications” or “Entertainment / News / Marketing”
There’s a fork here: one side is the stuff we do inside podcasting, blogging, Twitter, and other platforms that’s mostly communicating back and forth between small groups of friends. We’ll just start calling that communications. You’ll think nothing of the fact that someone has written on your wall and you’ve left a voice post back because you’re on the run. It will be a video clip when you’re at the market showing just how great the fresh squash display looks, and your friends will send back Twitters of positive comments, all mixed and mashed, and without much thought about it. Some of what you consider podcasting (talking about your week, your town, etc) will fall into here.
On the other side of the equation, folks who are serious about using the same software for more targeted purposes will do so, only it’ll slip out of vogue that it’s “social media.” The term will slip off into the bushes and we’ll just think about entertainment, news, and marketing. Because a huge chunk of people are looking for ways that this stuff all helps them convey a message. I think those folks are using the terms we’re all using, but that we’re mixing and mashing the same stuff around for different means. Nothing wrong with this. I just think we’ll all start calling these things what we need them to be, and those will harken back to older terms for larger adoption.
BONUS NOTE: I think very soon, our email address will double as our phone number for most intents and purposes. Either our wireless telcos will add a translation field for email addresses, or a 3rd party service will manage a directory for such. Why should I know your digits? I know who I mean to address.
Media Flexibility
Just as soon as we stop with the format wars, I think we’ll get further into moving media around to where we want it, and in the form we want. As people are suggesting that Flash is thinking of abandoning the FLV format for h.264, this means that wireless technologies are more ready to catch that format, and that more standardized integration can happen. What does this mean? It means that I can watch a movie on my Apple TV at home, slide it onto my phone, and watch the rest of it at the airport waiting for my plane. My media will go where I want it to go, and I’ll stop thinking about it that way. It will just be what I’m watching.
Networks as Computers and Network Promiscuity
On the show floor of VON, I talked with the NetGear guys about their new network-attached-storage (NAS) solution. It’s targeted for the consumer market (and ostensibly the SMB market, as well), and not especially expensive. Mixing this with my own personal computing environment at home, I can imagine several related trends happening within five years:
- Keyboards and screens will be one input to several networked computers. Game controllers like the XBOX 360 will be another. The difference? They’ll back-end into the same general environment, with only their front-end processing differences to separate them in our minds.
- Other devices will share the network, including a media player over by our TV screen, maybe another in the kitchen to manage smart appliances or at least manage another destination appliance or two.
- Portable devices (wireless or wimax) will connect me to my home system remotely, or virtual, or at least network portals between my stuff and your stuff.
Further, networks everywhere will be better equipped to understand which devices are attempting to access it, and they’ll know better how to manage access/billing. It’s ludicrous that I have to go through a several keystroke and click process to get logged into the T-Mobile network for wifi. They know me. I know them. Why not make the wifi universe a lot more seamless, just like roaming for wireless phones in the US? And if not in that format, then either WiMax or EVDO, or another of the technologies. (In my mind, I want stronger networks more ubiquitous instead of weaker network more portable).
The Future of Telcos and CableCos
Quite often, I think that I want telcos like Verizon and cable companies like Comcast to become fat dumb pipes. But then I have a realization that they really COULD do lots more for me. They have two choices, I believe: figure out some of these new services faster than others, adopt the best of breed, or get out of the way by turning dumb and letting other people build the crazy stuff we need. We NEED new technologies to get some of this done. Think of how some of this could work:
- What if your wireless company helped you mix and match your cell phone and your landline phone (unified communications), but then also helped you mix and match your network connectivity, your storage solutions, your social networks, and your presence information?
- What if your cable company delivered content portably, provided extras for mashups, gave you the ability to port media between devices without thinking much about it?
- What if the promise of Microsoft’s Origami platform, where I could take my XBOX360 game over onto a handheld device, and then take it off on the road (playing Halo3 in the men’s room) was facilitated by my telephone company?
But I can already hear Jeff Pulver groaning. He’s convinced (and rightly so) that the telcos and cablecos aren’t going to figure this out, and that they should get out of the way and let interested 3rd parties do it.
Some Other Trends
I’m using almost 100% Google Apps for my typical office software needs. I could just as easy use Zoho products (sometimes I mix and match). I don’t need offline software for most of that. I think that the blur between Internet software and on-device software will continue, such that we have offline modes of most of our online apps, and that simplicity in applications continues to be the trend for MOST things we do.
And Now, YOUR Turn
Where do you see things going in the next five years? Does any of this above resonate with you? Where am I wrong? Correct me. I’d love to open this up to all of you.
Photo Credit PrASanGam
If you enjoyed this post, please consider leaving a comment or subscribing to the feed to receive future articles delivered to your feed reader.
Comments
[…] bboncorr1 wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptIt means that I can watch a movie on my Apple TV at home, slide it onto my phone, and watch the rest of it at the airport waiting for my plane. My media will go where I want it to go, and I’ll stop thinking about it that way. … […]
Carriers are absolutely at a fork in the road. I am hopeful that they will choose to “figure it out” and collaborate with others in order to be in nysc with us… The future is bright…
I’m looking forward to seeing what the next 5 years brings.
I know that already I’m frustrated by limitations in my devices. Why is it so hard to sync my Palm, my cell, my computer and my Google Calendar? Why is it so hard to sync my contacts across multiple devices and platforms? I know there are solutions but they haven’t hit the mainstream yet.
I’m still frustrated that my son’s school doesn’t allow email back and forth? Oh he forgot to bring in the essay due today? No problem I’ll email it. Seems simple but still not there yet.
It’s happening too fast for some and too slow for me :)
It’s interesting that you bring up the mix of “communication” across multiple platforms — I’ve recently been experimenting with that concept in terms of daily communication. It comes easily and without thought — I get a DM on Twitter, respond via email on Facebook, etc, etc.
Knowing a lot of different people on multiple platforms makes this feasible in a way, since many of them are on the same networks I am, and others are exclusively on one or the other (my communication reaches everyone, no matter their scenario). Those who span multiple platforms can experience the outreach in many ways.
Shout-out! for picking up on that trend.
Great write up here, Chris, per usual. Here are my “off the top o’ my head” thoughts:
MSM is waking up and advertising dollars have shifted to the Web. All are adapting to the new online world. Old ways are fading but new not necessarily owned and controlled by new. It will be a mix of old and new. Content is King is now decided by the individuals but it still needs to be good content. Telcoms and Cable are waking up, IMHO. The battle for distribution over the net is *not* set.
Also, each individual will have their own web presence. Like the cell phone number of today it will be “what’s your web site” instead of “what’s your cell phone number?” Easier to remember name: BarbaraKB than my cell phone number.
Peace.
Awesome article Chris,
thanks a lot for your thoughts!
I think in 5 years from now we will have free WiFi everywhere, devices like mobile phones will no longer be but will be some smart mini device like camera, phone, GPS and PDA/smartphone in one.
Computers/laptops will still be there, Apple and Linux will be 50% of the market, the other 50% will be mostly Windows. And Google will be the biggest and most influential media company.
Chris,
I honestly don’t believe we can even come close to prognosticating as to what the computing landscape - both online and offline - will look like in 5 years. We are having a hard enough time even looking a year down the road.
Who would have thought a year ago that Facebook would have risen above college hijinks to become the threat to Google that it is. Who would have thought two years ago athat a simple web app that asked “What are you doing” would become a growing social communication tool with an ever increasing 3rd party client developer following.
Who would have thought a year ago that terrabyte harddrive could become commonplace as they nearly are. Who would have thought that broadband providers would be traffic shaping and fighting over the auction rules for the 700Mhz band.
Who would have thought even a few years ago that Apple would be gaining serious traction once again in the PC market or that Microsoft would become a prime visible sponsor of a podcamp.
In some cases it is even hard to tell what will be happening tomorrow let alone next week … 5 years down the road …. that could be a whole new century in the tech world.
I think that Wiki technologies will become more commonplace.
I hope that the attempts to make software pay-per-use dies a quick death.
And someone will bring out a product/service that will make the rest of us slap ourselves on the forehead & say, “Why didn’t I think of that?”.
I think the telcos/cablecos Could figure it out - but (agreeing with Jeff) they won’t. I think they simply aren’t interested - but will be when it’s too late.
I’m loving watching how the sector is progressing - this morning I took a walk, answering Twitters, thought about Uttering, watched @pistchio’s YouTube update vid (made me laugh out loud) and quickly send a couple of Facebook video replies to questions from my team (I can’t wait to try Seesmic!).
We’re no longer barreling to the future - it’s here. Now comes the deeper development that ensures mass penetration. I think that we’ll stop thinking of the tools and it’ll all be communication (vids to friends and clients, voice posts and project blogs).
Glad to have you back - you were missed!
The biggest complaint I hear from my friends, my parents, and my kids- three generations- is that it’s too time and energy consuming to keep up with all the different social networking technologies. Everything has to be simplified for the typical consumer to be bothered.
I think the social networks that succeed over the next five years will be the ones that are good at working with each other to make things easier. One login for everything. One ID that lets people contact each other.
But some of those same people who complain that it’s too complicated are also concerned about maintaining privacy, and what they see as emerging monopolies like Google. Mostly people my age and older, though, so I don’t think that privacy issues will be a huge roadblock overall.
[…] Appletell wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerpt [IMG clock] Imagine what will happen in five years, especially with regards to technology and social media. Where have things been? Where will they go? What will be different between now and then? In thinking about the future, we can better understand our position in the present. I’m hoping that through this we can talk about trends and thoughts and ideas and plans. It’s fun, but it’s also a way to plan and consider our own paths. (This is fairly technology-focused. Feel free to spin your answe […]
We’ll be able to manifest communications across different media types (audio, text, video) wirelessly, mobile-ly, seamlessly. Won’t have to push buttons—Will be able to control computation with voice. More “Intelligent” voice interfaces.
Social networks meet AI meet media.
Fun!
[…] when Chris Brogan asked where social media is headed 5 years from now, my instinctive response is to […]
Chris,
Thanks for getting my thought processes happening today, I had began my response here, but it grew so large that I decided to make a blog post out of it.
[…] Five Years From Now » This Summary is from an article posted at [chrisbrogan.com] on Sunday, November 04, 2007 [ […]
I do think the future is going to be about people untethering with their media consumption, the same way we’ve moved away from rotary phones with the ubiqitous curly chords.
this video came out a few years ago , looking at 2014. It has some this in it that are already happening and afew things that are very possible. enjoy :)
future history of the media by Robin Sloan and Matt Thompson, with music by Aaron McLeran.
Chris,
I agree with you on the whole email as phone number thing. Who types in a web site IP address? We all use the alpha characters. I don’t even know my wife’s phone number - I dial her name in my contact list.
I too use Google Apps - about 99% of the time. There are rare occasions when I need the formatting power of Word or Power Point offline.
I think the biggest trend in 5 years is devises will become pervasive. We won’t realize where our content is coming from. We will turn on our radio and it will be our favorite talkshow. It may come from a radio tower - satalite - or WiFi - and it won’t matter. Only the content will matter.
Chris, you obviously put a lot of thought into this. It’s hard to say what will happen, but changing people’s behaviors will be difficult.
I see virtual worlds taking on a much larger role within social media. We need smoother, more liquid interfaces for this to happen. This in turn requires more bandwidth, better interface technologies and computing power on the average desktop. All three are highly likely in the next five years.
Due to ubiquity, in the future we will finally drop the “e” and “i” prefixes. “Ecommerce” will just be “commerce.” The “iPhone” will just be a phone.
I’m always impressed and a little mystified by people like you, Chris, who can predict future trends. Oh, it’s not predicting the future, but I think it’s cool.
I’ve started collecting trend-watching (and predicting) tips, and I’ll share a few, FYI. Maybe it’ll kick off some thinking.
From “The 80-20 Principle”:
o Spot when things are in the tipping point, 1/2 way between two equally-balanced entities, for example. Koch gives historical examples like search engines (Google won) or music players (iPod won).
o All the big breakthroughs were based on
predicting what customers will *need*, not what they’re following.
o Identify any market or any sphere or activity where there’s room for 20% of work generating 80% of the profit. What are the majority doing wrong and the minority doing right?
Also, a few interesting examples here: Five Essential Online Trends for Small Businesses
http://www.smallbiztrends.com/2007/09/five-essential-online-trends-for-small-businesses.html
Cheers!
Chris Brogan on 5 Years From Now…
Chris Brogan is nothing if not prolific. He’s asking for folks to predict where things might be down the road five years or so from now.That’s a heavy load, when it is looking more and more like you can’t predict…
[…] take a look at the latest from http://chrisbrogan.com: It will be a video clip when you’re at the market showing just how great the fresh squash […]
Here’s a couple:
1) We’ll be talking about a company with a Facebook-size valuation that doesn’t exist today.
2) The technology and infrastructure will get more complex, but the interface to the user will get simpler.
3) The word “television” will sound oh so quaint.
$) For most, interactions with a newpspaer won’t involve paper.
Chris opens the post with “Imagine what will happen in five years, especially with regards to technology and social media.” Most of us equate technology to information or computing technology.
To provide different perspective, the week before last was the National FFA Convention (podcast and media at http://www.ffa.org/ffashow/). While this is a very USA centric convention, there were several sessions and discussions on what will face collage graduate in ag in the next 2 to 5 years=> food, fuel, and water on a global scale. All of these have a impact on our lives and many technical solution will be put out there.
Just think what $5+ gas will do to your in person social network if that network is not local. Could energy prices make electronic social network tools more valuable? You might be able to “green” Facebook by saying you’re having a conversation without buying fuel…
Coming soon: “Green” web sites=> “By using Facebook to connect with friends, associates, and business partners, you are saving XXXX carbon credits”
Or, like Google has a running gmail “Lots of space” meter, there could be a carbon credits meter on social networks (hahahhaha).
The future is going to be about flexibility. Flexibility requires commonality, standards, portability and cross-platform integrity.
Once standards and wrappers arise (think RSS), we can begin to innovate. Those that don’t accept the wrappers will die (Sony and the mp3 format). Those that embrace these formats in exceptional ways, those that create enhanced function based on superior form and design, these will be our leaders.
The 80s was about the hardware.
The 90s were about the interface.
The 00s will be about fusion.
The future is going to be about flexibility. Flexibility requires commonality, standards, portability and cross-platform integrity.
Once standards and wrappers arise (think RSS), we can begin to innovate. Those that don’t accept the wrappers will die (Sony and the mp3 format). Those that embrace these formats in exceptional ways, those that create enhanced function based on superior form and design, these will be our leaders.
___________________
The 80s was about the hardware.
The 90s were about the interface.
The 00s will be about fusion.
[…] Five Years From Now : [chrisbrogan.com] Imagine what will happen in five years, especially with regards to technology and social media. (tags: socialmedia) […]
[…] Brogan on possible scenarios 5 years from now, covering social media, media flexibility, networks as computers and network promiscuity, and the […]
Hi Chris,
So glad to find your writing again! I know you’ve been busy & Utterz has allowed you to keep blogging in a new way, but reading is comforting.
Considering that I’ve taken a job as Comm. Mgr that didn’t exist 2 yrs ago is a bit frightening. So the position’s future in five years is a big question. But it’s also exciting to be a part of this trend & assisting customers in their groundswell. The evolution of this new form of marketing will be quite interesting.
I agree with many of your ideas on technology. It will continue to enmesh itself into our lives.